Corn and soybean outlook after the November WASDE: implications for animal protein ingredients

The November USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) brought a moderately tighter outlook for US corn and soybeans.

For the animal protein industry, the important conclusion is not simply that grain stocks declined. The more relevant question is whether changes in corn, soybean and soybean meal economics will alter the relative competitiveness of meat and bone meal, poultry meal and other feed proteins.

USDA tightens the US corn balance

In its 10 November WASDE, USDA lowered the forecast US corn yield for 2026/27 from 181.2 to 179.6 bushels per acre. This reduced estimated production by 141 million bushels, to about 15.893 billion bushels.

US corn ending stocks were consequently reduced by 91 million bushels, from 1.849 billion to 1.758 billion bushels. That is a meaningful tightening of the balance sheet.

It should not automatically be read as a strongly bullish corn signal. USDA at the same time lowered its 2026/27 season-average farm price forecast by USD 0.10, to about USD 4.60 per bushel.

This apparent contradiction illustrates an important point: supply is only one side of feed economics. Demand, exports, ethanol use and existing inventories also matter.

Soybean stocks also move lower

The soybean picture is somewhat different. USDA slightly raised its 2026/27 soybean production estimate, but stronger projected exports more than absorbed the additional supply.

US soybean ending stocks were reduced by 15 million bushels, from 315 million to 300 million bushels. USDA also lowered projected world soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 to about 123.5 million tonnes.

The soybean balance is therefore somewhat tighter than in last month’s forecast, but it is not a situation of absolute scarcity. For the wider supply picture, see our earlier article on the 2026 soybean and protein-meal outlook.

Figure 1 · US ending stocks

Why this matters for animal proteins

Soybean meal is the main benchmark protein ingredient in many feed formulations.

When soybean meal becomes cheaper relative to animal proteins, formulators have a stronger incentive to maximise vegetable protein where nutritional requirements permit. When soybean meal becomes more expensive, the relative value of products such as MBM, poultry meal or blood proteins can improve.

The relationship is not one-to-one. Rendered animal proteins deliver more than crude protein. Depending on the product, they can provide minerals, amino acids, energy and functional characteristics that soybean meal cannot replicate directly. Ash content, digestibility, species origin and regulatory restrictions also affect how much of an animal protein can be used in a formulation.

The right comparison is therefore not “Which ingredient has the lowest price per tonne?” but “Which ingredient provides the lowest cost for the required nutritional contribution?” We look at this in more detail in The cheapest feed ingredient is not always the lowest-cost ration.

MBM should be viewed as a package of protein and minerals

This distinction is particularly important for meat and bone meal.

MBM combines protein with substantial levels of calcium and phosphorus. Its economic value therefore cannot be assessed purely against soybean meal on a crude-protein basis. A formulation that replaces MBM may also need additional mineral supplementation.

At the same time, high ash levels can limit the attractiveness of lower-quality MBM. For buyers, the specification becomes central: two products described simply as “MBM 50%” may have materially different nutritional and commercial value.

Poultry meal occupies a different position

High-protein poultry meal competes in another segment. Products around 60-65% protein are more relevant in pet food, aquafeed and higher-value feed formulations where concentrated animal protein is required.

The November WASDE does not give a direct price signal for poultry meal. It changes one part of the relative-value equation.

If soybean meal becomes structurally more expensive while fishmeal supply remains constrained (see why Peru has no second North-Centre anchovy season this year), high-quality poultry meal may become more attractive. If abundant South American soybean production pushes soybean meal lower, the opposite pressure could emerge.

This is why the next stage of the market will depend heavily on South America.

Brazil and Argentina now become more important

The US harvest is largely complete, so attention is moving to planting and growing conditions in Brazil and Argentina.

A strong South American soybean crop could increase global soybean and meal availability in early 2027 and put downward pressure on protein prices. Weather problems could have the opposite effect.

This is particularly relevant in the current strong El Niño. NOAA’s 12 November update still expects strong-to-very strong El Niño conditions through January-March 2027. El Niño does not automatically mean poor soybean or corn crops in South America; effects differ by region and period. The sound approach is to monitor rainfall, soil moisture, planting progress and crop conditions rather than translate the ENSO label directly into a production forecast.

Implications for Asian buyers

For feed manufacturers in Vietnam and Southeast Asia, the November WASDE points to a somewhat tighter US balance, but not yet a structural shortage of feed grains or soybeans. In our reading, the practical implication is monitoring rather than aggressive procurement.

Buyers should follow three relationships:

Figure 2 · Three price relationships

• (1) Soybean meal versus MBM: determines the economics of conventional feed-protein substitution.
• (2) Soybean meal versus poultry meal: particularly relevant for higher-protein formulations.
• (3) Fishmeal versus poultry meal and other animal proteins: increasingly important if marine ingredient supply remains constrained.

These relationships are best measured with current CFR prices for your port rather than international futures alone.

Outlook

The November WASDE modestly strengthens the fundamental support for corn and soybeans, but it does not establish a broad bullish trend for all feed proteins.

The animal protein market will continue to be shaped by its own supply fundamentals: slaughter volumes, rendering availability, export demand, freight, currency and regulatory eligibility.

Grain markets provide the benchmark, but they do not determine animal protein prices by themselves. The best sourcing decisions will come from comparing actual landed prices and nutritional value across soybean meal, fishmeal and rendered animal proteins, rather than reacting to a single WASDE headline.

To compare specifications and CFR options for your port, request a quote or talk to the trading desk.

General market information only, based on the cited sources as of their publication dates. Not trading, investment or price advice. Verify figures against the original sources before commercial use.