Record soybean supply may reshape protein-meal trade in 2026

Bottom line: FAO forecasts a record 432.3 million tonnes of global soybean production in 2025/26. A bigger crop should improve raw-material availability. But it does not mean cheaper soybean meal everywhere. Crush economics, biofuel demand, currencies and freight still decide the price Asian buyers pay on delivery.

FAO expects production growth in Brazil and the Russian Federation to more than offset expected falls in Argentina, India and North America. This changes the global supply balance, but the effect on business will differ by origin and destination.

A record soybean crop is not the same as record meal supply

Soybean meal exists only after beans are crushed into meal and oil. So the meal that reaches export markets depends on more than the harvest. It also depends on processing capacity, crush margins, domestic oil demand and the supply of beans at each crushing site.

Brazil’s larger crop can support both soybean exports and domestic crushing. Argentina stays important to the meal trade, because its industry is built mainly to crush beans and export meal and oil. A change in output in either country affects Asian buyers differently. Brazil may export more whole beans. Argentina’s processing economics usually have a more direct effect on how much soybean meal is available.

Why delivered prices can differ

• Crush margins: Processors look at the combined value of soybean meal and soybean oil, not the meal price alone.
• Biofuel demand: Policies that support renewable diesel or biodiesel can raise vegetable-oil values. This encourages crushing and changes how much meal is produced alongside the oil, and at what price.
• Currency: Moves in the Brazilian real, the Argentine peso, the US dollar or an importing country’s currency can cancel out changes in benchmark prices.
• Freight and logistics: Port congestion, vessel availability and ocean freight can open a wide gap between export quotes and delivered cost.
• Timing: Pressure from the South American harvest may improve near-term availability. Weather or shipping delays can change the picture quickly.

What Asian buyers should compare

Do not rely on one soybean-meal benchmark. Compare origin, protein specification, processing method, shipment window, currency exposure, freight basis and the import documents you need. Suppliers of feed-related ingredients should also check how much of the apparent global surplus is actually available for the intended destination.

What it means: A record soybean crop broadly supports protein-meal supply. But the benefit will not reach every market at the same time or at the same landed cost. Flexible origins and a careful comparison of delivered terms still matter.

MANTA view: “A record soybean crop gives the buyer more options. Crush economics and logistics decide which option is truly competitive.”

FAQ

Will record soybean production automatically lower soybean-meal prices? No. It may add supply pressure. But meal prices also depend on crushing, soybean-oil values, demand, currencies and freight.

Why does biofuel policy matter to feed buyers? Soybean oil and soybean meal are produced together. Stronger biofuel demand can change oil values and crush incentives. That indirectly affects how much meal is produced and what it costs.

Sources: FAO Food Outlook, 18 June 2026; USDA FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, 10 July 2026.

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