No second anchovy season in Peru: what changes for protein buyers

Peru will not open a second 2026 anchovy season in its North-Centre zone. RPP Noticias reported on 16 October that the Ministry of Production (PRODUCE) took the decision because biological and oceanographic conditions are unfavourable. The next season is planned for 2027, with no date set.

This follows the supply decline we covered in our 10 October article. The new point is that no new-season supply from this zone is planned this year. Two other signals matter for buyers who look at alternatives: rendered protein prices at origin, and where substitution actually works.

Why Peru stopped the season

According to RPP, the decision rests on a stock survey by the marine research institute IMARPE, with data up to 7 October:

• Estimated anchovy biomass of about 5.12 Mt, roughly 28% below the summer survey.
• Juveniles made up 79% of the fish by number.
• Spawning was below normal, and warm water anomalies persisted.

The first 2026 season was already cut short. Fishing in the North-Centre zone was suspended on 10 June, with only about a quarter of the 1,914,049 t quota caught. IFFO expects El Niño conditions to last into early 2027.

US meat and bone meal prices are rising

When fishmeal is short, buyers often look at rendered animal proteins. One US price series shows meat and bone meal getting more expensive, not cheaper.

The index rose about 2.7% from August to September and about 16% year on year. It measures prices received by US producers. It is not a CFR price in Asia, and it does not cover other origins. It is still a sign that US producer prices for this product are firm.

Substitution is possible, but not everywhere

On the supply side there is one supportive signal. In its October outlook, the USDA Economic Research Service adjusted projected US broiler production higher for 2026 and 2027, without giving amounts in its summary. More birds processed may mean more raw material for poultry-origin proteins such as poultry meal.

In our reading, tight fishmeal supply opens room for poultry meal, haemoglobin and other high-protein animal proteins in some diets. Whether a given ingredient works depends on three checks:

• Nutritional fit. Pepsin digestibility, amino acid profile and ash differ between fishmeal and each alternative. The diet decides how much of a change it can take.
• Specification. Two lots with the same crude protein can perform very differently. The full specification and the COA matter, not the headline protein figure.
• Eligibility. The destination market must allow the product, the species and the origin. These rules differ by country and can change.

If one of the three fails, the alternative is not an option for that diet, whatever its price.

Product signals at a glance

This table is MANTA’s reading of the sources above, not a forecast. Signals are directional and differ by origin and specification.

What this means for buyers

This is MANTA’s reading of the facts above, not a price forecast.

• Plan fishmeal supply into 2027. With no second season in Peru, confirm volumes and shipment windows early, and keep a second origin in view.
• Compare alternatives on a delivered basis. Use the US index as context only. Decide on CFR offers for your port, with the same specification and documents.
• Test substitution before you need it. Let the nutrition team approve each alternative, and confirm import eligibility before the first order, not after.

To discuss specifications and shipment windows, request a quote or talk to the trading desk.

General market information only, based on the cited sources as of their publication dates. Not trading, investment or price advice. Verify figures against the original sources before commercial use.