Fishmeal output is down 45% in 2026: what buyers should plan for

Fishmeal output reported by IFFO member countries through August 2026 is 45% below the same period of 2025, and fish oil output is 26% lower. The main cause is a weak anchovy fishery in Peru, where El Niño conditions have kept the North-Centre fishing zone largely closed.

How the year developed

For comparison, IFFO reported that output had risen about 8% through September 2025 (our earlier article). The 2026 decline reverses that trend.

IFFO’s figures come from member countries that together represent about 40% of global fishmeal production and 50% of fish oil production. They are a sample, not a full census.

What is behind it

• Peru. Peru typically accounts for about 20% of world fishmeal and fish oil production. The first 2026 North-Centre anchovy quota was set at 1,914,049 tonnes, about 27% of the estimated biomass. Fishing was interrupted repeatedly and suspended on 10 June, with only about 25% of the quota caught. The zone was still closed in August, and a new stock assessment began on 15 September.
• El Niño. IFFO says El Niño conditions are still strengthening and are forecast to persist into early 2027.
• Chile. Catches in the first part of 2026 stayed well below the previous year, with many juvenile fish limiting fishing. By August, raw material intake in Chile, Spain and the United States was higher than a year earlier.
• Northern Europe. Lower raw material availability also contributed to the decline. IFFO states this is unrelated to El Niño.

Supply outlook for 2026

IFFO projects 2026 fishmeal supply of less than 4.6 million tonnes, the lowest since 2016 (4.53 million tonnes). Fish oil supply may fall to about 1.15 million tonnes, also the lowest since 2016 (about 1.13 million tonnes). The final weeks of fishing could still shift these estimates, and IFFO notes that the full-year result depends increasingly on second-half output in Morocco, China, India and Oman.

Demand side

China’s aquafeed production reached 11.1 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, up 17.4% year on year. Fishmeal use by aquaculture was slightly weaker than a year earlier but remained relatively resilient. Imported fishmeal stocks in China kept sliding through September and stayed well below average, and domestic output after the fishing moratorium has disappointed.

What this means for buyers

This is MANTA’s reading of the facts above, not a price forecast.

• Plan lead times and volumes earlier. A year with the lowest fishmeal supply in a decade leaves less room for late orders.
• Compare origins, not only price. Output differs by producing country. Having more than one origin available matters most when one origin is short or restricted.
• Check the specification and documents for each lot. Protein level, freshness data and the documents required by the destination country should be confirmed before a contract is signed.

General market information only, based on the cited sources as of their publication dates. Not trading, investment or price advice. Verify figures against IFFO’s own publications before commercial use.