Bottom line: Global soybean production in 2025/26 is forecast to reach a record 432.3 million tonnes, according to FAO. The larger crop should improve raw-material availability, but it does not guarantee uniformly cheaper soybean meal: crush economics, biofuel demand, currencies and freight still determine the price delivered to Asian buyers.
FAO expects continued production growth in Brazil and the Russian Federation to more than offset anticipated reductions in Argentina, India and North America. That changes the global supply balance, but the commercial effect will vary by origin and destination.
A record soybean crop is not the same as record meal supply
Soybean meal is produced only after beans are crushed into meal and oil. The volume of meal reaching export markets therefore depends not only on harvested beans, but also on processing capacity, crush margins, domestic oil demand and the availability of beans at each crushing location.
Brazil’s expanding crop can support soybean exports and domestic crushing. Argentina remains structurally important to the meal trade because its industry is strongly oriented toward crushing and exporting meal and oil. A production change in either country can influence Asian buying options differently: Brazil may export more whole beans, while Argentina’s processing economics often have a more direct effect on soybean-meal availability.
Why delivered prices can diverge
- Crush margins: Processors respond to the combined value of soybean meal and soybean oil, not the meal price alone.
- Biofuel demand: Policies supporting renewable diesel or biodiesel can strengthen vegetable-oil values, encourage crushing and alter the amount and pricing of meal produced alongside the oil.
- Currency: Changes in the Brazilian real, Argentine peso, US dollar or an importing market’s currency can offset movements in benchmark prices.
- Freight and logistics: Port congestion, vessel availability and ocean freight can create a wide difference between export quotations and delivered cost.
- Timing: South American harvest pressure may improve nearby availability, while weather or shipment delays can quickly change the position.
What Asian buyers should compare
Buyers should compare more than a single soybean-meal benchmark. Useful checks include origin, protein specification, processing method, shipment window, currency exposure, freight basis and required import documentation. Suppliers of feed-related ingredients should likewise confirm what part of the apparent global surplus is commercially available to the intended destination.
What it means: Record soybean production is broadly supportive for protein-meal supply, but the benefit will not reach every market at the same time or at the same landed cost. Origin flexibility and disciplined comparison of delivered terms remain important.
MANTA view: “A record soybean crop expands the buyer’s options, but crush economics and logistics decide which option is genuinely competitive.”
FAQ
Will record soybean production automatically reduce soybean-meal prices?
No. It may increase supply pressure, but meal prices also depend on crushing, soybean-oil values, demand, currencies and freight.
Why does biofuel policy matter to feed buyers?
Soybean oil and soybean meal are produced together. Stronger biofuel demand can change oil values and crush incentives, indirectly affecting the production and pricing of meal.
Sources: FAO Food Outlook, 18 June 2026; USDA FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, 10 July 2026.