Bottom line: Global cereal production is forecast at approximately 2.983 billion tonnes in 2026, down 1.9% from the record reached in 2025 but still the second-highest level on record. Overall availability remains comfortable, although weather, energy costs and geopolitical disruption could increase regional prices and landed costs.
FAO’s July 2026 outlook indicates that improved maize prospects have partly offset a weaker wheat forecast. Global cereal stocks are expected to reach approximately 957.8 million tonnes by the close of the 2027 seasons, leaving the cereal stock-to-use ratio broadly stable at around 32%.
Supply remains broadly adequate
The global balance does not currently point to a general shortage of feed grains. Coarse-grain production—including maize and barley—is forecast at approximately 1.624 billion tonnes, only slightly below the previous year.
Coarse-grain utilization is nevertheless expected to increase by around 8 million tonnes, or 0.5%, in 2026/27. Higher feed use in South America is one of the principal drivers.
Wheat conditions are less supportive. FAO lowered its global wheat outlook as prospects weakened in several major exporting regions. Wheat utilization is forecast at approximately 802.5 million tonnes, with lower feed use expected in China as wheat becomes less competitive against stabilising maize prices.
Trade flows may change even without a global shortage
Global cereal trade is forecast at approximately 507.6 million tonnes in 2026/27. Maize trade could expand by 5 million tonnes, or 2.5%, while wheat and barley trade are expected to contract.
For buyers, this means that headline global supply figures may not fully reflect availability at individual destinations. Export competition, crop timing, port capacity, freight rates and currency movements can still create substantial differences in landed cost. Buyers reviewing feed-related ingredients should therefore compare origins and shipment windows, not only benchmark commodity prices.
Key risks to monitor
- Weather: El Niño remains a source of uncertainty for crop development and export availability.
- Energy and fertiliser: Higher oil, fuel and fertiliser costs can affect both production expenses and ocean freight.
- Trade routes: Geopolitical disruption around important shipping corridors may increase freight premiums and delivery times.
- Regional crop conditions: A weaker harvest in one major exporter can redirect demand toward South America or other origins.
- Feed substitution: Changes in the relative prices of maize, wheat and other energy ingredients may alter feed formulations.
What it means: Feed-grain supply remains broadly adequate at the global level, but buyers should not interpret comfortable stocks as a guarantee of stable delivered prices. Procurement decisions should consider origin diversification, shipment timing and substitution options—not only benchmark commodity prices.
MANTA view: “The 2026 feed-grain market is better described as adequately supplied but increasingly exposed to regional and logistical disruption.”
FAQ
Is the world facing a feed-grain shortage in 2026?
Current FAO forecasts do not indicate a general global shortage. Production and stocks remain historically high, although some regional markets may experience tighter availability.
Why could feed costs rise if global supply remains ample?
Delivered costs also reflect freight, fuel, fertiliser, foreign exchange, trade policy and the availability of specific origins—not just total global production.
Sources: FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, 3 July 2026; FAO Food Outlook, 18 June 2026.