Global fishmeal rose about 8% and fish oil about 6% year-on-year through September 2025 (IFFO), with full-year output estimated near 5.6 million tonnes of fishmeal and 1.2–1.3 million tonnes of fish oil — supply broadly catching up to firm aquaculture demand.
IFFO reports cumulative gains across most producing regions, with Spain and Peru the main exceptions. In Peru — which supplies about 20% of global fishmeal in an average year — lower oil yields during the season weighed on output.
Supply & season risk
- Peru is the key swing factor. Authorities set the second North-Central season quota at 1.63 million tonnes (announced 12 November 2025), a science-based level for the world’s largest single-species fishery.
- Weather: El Niño-type ocean-temperature anomalies remain the principal risk to catch and yields.
- China: domestic marine-ingredient output is expected to fall in 2025 versus 2024 as the aquaculture peak season ends and production costs rise.
Demand
Fishmeal use in aquaculture exceeded 2024, supported by better performance-to-price ratios for feed. The peak aquafeed season typically runs into October, keeping demand well supported through the second half.
What it means: rising output eases some supply pressure but does not remove exposure to season-to-season volatility in Peru and shifting Chinese production. Reliable sourcing and quality documentation matter as flows adjust.
Watch: Peruvian season, quota and yields; El Niño; Chinese production and demand; freight and energy costs feeding into landed prices.
MANTA view: “This is supply catching up to firm aquaculture demand — with Peruvian seasons and Chinese output the main variables buyers should watch.”
FAQ
Did fishmeal production increase in 2025? Yes, up around 8% year-on-year through September (IFFO).
Why does Peru matter? It produces about 20% of global fishmeal, so its seasons and quotas drive global availability.
Source: IFFO — Global fishmeal and fish oil update, 2025.